The link above concerns a recent paper published in the journal Futures. Its French author has calculated that the probability of a giant asteroid (100 km) impact on our Planet for the next hundred years is 2.2 × 10-12 . But why worry about such a gigantic asteroid if there are so few and if a 10 km sized asteroid like the one that struck the Yucatan Peninsula (Chicxulub crater) is capable of killing almost 75% of all life on Earth?
In 2017 a study published in the journal Meteorites & Planetary Science predicted that if a 200 meters asteroid hit London it could kill more than 8 million people and three years ago NASA showed that even a “small” 60-meter sized asteroid could kill more than one million people if it hit the city of New Yor. And the truth is that there are as many as 25,000 of these “small” asteroids.
Declaration of competing interests – I have to admit that I have the unchristian dream of seeing a 10-meter sized high-density metal-rich asteroid hit the Kremlin when Bloodymir Putin is doing one of his live broadcasts.
PS – Last year a paper published in the journal Acta Astronautica analyzed the consequences of the asteroid Apophis (370 meters sized) hitting the Ocean https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094576521004161?via%3Dihub